Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
